Share a live report
Every forecast gets a public, read-only report — reasoning, sources and history — anyone can open with a link. No account needed.
Real-time AI forecasts
Dynamic probability updates
Executive Dashboard
Measure The FutureTM
The Forecasting Machine is an AI-powered foresight platform that transforms strategic uncertainty into hard probabilities that are evidence-backed and continuously updated for greater actionability.
Some Recent Forecasts
Requested and published by other users
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Trusted by — research, policy & forecasting institutions
Testimonials
"« The Forecasting Machine can help conduct horizon scanning at scale and speed which hasn't been possible until now. »
"« The Forecasting Machine is a great tool to convert an avalanche of news into a collection of time series that describes the world in a far more structured way than the original documents. »
Signal over noise
Turn chaos into clarity
The Forecasting Machine turns scattered news, data, and expert judgment into clear, probability-backed forecasts — so you can see what's coming before it happens.
Architecture
Smart Forecasting Pipeline
The Forecasting Machine combines event-drivers analysis, real- time multilingual online news gathering, and multi-model collective intelligence to generate richly-documented probability forecasts. They are updated automatically custom schedules, or on demand in response to human feedback.
Market
Policy
Tech
Social
Question Analysis
Analyzes question context to identify key drivers and information needs
News Monitoring
Intelligent querying and gathering of relevant news articles
Event Processing
Extracts and processes key events, storing them in a structured database
Multi-model Prompting
Generate independent forecasts using leading models from Anthropic, OpenAI, and Google.
Outcome A65%
Outcome B25%
Outcome C10%
Confidence Level:
High
Reasoned probabilities
Aggregated probabilities with fully-documented rationales
Benefits
A Closer Look
A simple overview comparing our forecasting method with other common approaches.
| Benefit | The Forecasting Machine® | Simple LLM | Super/Crowd Forecasting | Model-Based Forecasting |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Universal Forecast anything, at any time horizon. | Requires experts in every domain and short time horizons | Requires lots of historical data and a separate model for each type forecast | ||
Timely Instant forecasts at AI speed, automatically updated | Requires full prompts and manual updates | Each forecast requires days of research | ||
Documented Easy access to forecast reasoning and sources | Optional | Reasoning and sources, if provided, require synthesis | ||
Scalable Unlimited number of forecasts organized in a rich dashboard | No built-in dashboard | Severely constrained by human cognitive limits | No built-in dashboard | |
Aware Real-time global news scan informs latest forecasts | No built-in dashboard, limited news scanning | Severely constrained by human cognitive limits | Requires custom news scanning and interpretation | |
Interactive Forecast updates respond to human input | Requires new prompts | Depends on participant availability | Not inherently interactive | |
Persistent Retains memory of all past forecasts and events | No persistent memory | Human forecaster turnover results in memory loss | ||
Low Cost Professional quality forecasts for less than a cup of coffee | Expert human forecasting is rare and expensive | Requires costly human model-builder and operator |
Ask anything
From a plain question to a resolvable forecast
Type a question the way you'd say it out loud. The Forecasting Machine refines it into a precise, resolvable forecast question — with resolution criteria, outcomes, and an update schedule drafted for you.
The result
Your question, now live
Once published, the question opens into a living workspace — timeline, rationale and sources. And it doesn't stay there: share it as a public report, export a PDF brief, or embed a live widget on any site.
The Forecasting Machine — Question 934L
⌘K
Unresolved Weekly updates Shared
What will be the nature of the next significant event that will impact global financial market returns?
Updated Mar 28, 12:19 PM
Large regional conflict42%Tensions on global trades25%Resource shortage or layoffs15%Unconventional policy9%Other8%
Rationale
Escalation risk remains the leading driver: three of five monitored theaters recorded new incidents this week1, while naval activity near contested routes rose for a fourth consecutive week2. Tariff rhetoric has cooled since the March summit3, shifting probability mass from trade tensions toward regional conflict.
Sources
1
Naval incidents rise in contested shipping corridors
Reuters · Mar 28
2
Defense postures shift as regional tensions mount
Financial Times · Mar 26
3
Trade talks resume with softened tariff language
AP News · Mar 24
Export as PDF
One click turns any forecast into a paper-ready brief — chart, probabilities and cited sources included.
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Embed anywhere
A live widget that drops into any site or article — gauge, bars or history chart, styled to match the host.
Journal
Insights that drive decisions
Essays and engineering notes from the team — on forecasting, probabilities, and the methods behind the machine.
The Forecasting Machine—Journal
Emile Servan-Schreiber
Why Probabilities Beat Predictions
Theodore Balick
The Architecture Behind Real-Time Forecast Updates
Iheb Jendoubi
Forecasting Beyond English
Read the signal, not the noise.
Read the journalAccess plans for every forecasting team
Start with a structured pilot, then scale into the workspace your team needs. Individual access is opening from the waitlist.
Access is approved by plan and workspace needs
Structured pilot
Start with your hardest open question
Tell us your hardest open question. We'll spin up a private workspace, decompose it with you, and ship a calibrated probability — with cited evidence and a 14-day movement log — before the pilot ends.
Individual
1 seat
Waitlist
Personal use, public questions only.
- 5 forecasts / week
- Public question library
- Email-only delivery
Pilot
Up to 5 seats
14 daystrial
Two-week structured evaluation.
- 1 question domain
- Private workspace
- Onboarding session
Most teams
Team
Up to 25 seats
Annual
Full platform for strategy & risk teams.
- 4 question domains
- Slack & Teams delivery
- API access & webhooks
- SAML SSO
Enterprise
Unlimited seats
Contract
Region-pinned, audit-grade deployment.
- All question domains
- Region-pinned data
- SOC 2 Type II + DPA
- Named CSM
Research
By application
Sponsored
Academic & non-profit access.
- Discounted seats
- Co-published calibration data
- Cited methodology