THE FORECASTING MACHINEJOURNALAUGUST 2026

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EXPLORE OUR LATEST THINKING ON FORECASTING, DATA, AND THE FINDINGS THAT SHAPE SMARTER BUSINESS DECISIONS.

FORECASTING
A magazine of forecasts, probabilities & calibration

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Latest Insights

Why Probabilities Beat Predictions
2026-05-12Emile Servan-Schreiber

Why Probabilities Beat Predictions

Point predictions feel decisive, but probabilities tell the truth. Here is why we build every forecast as a distribution, not a single number.

Why Probabilities Beat Predictions
2026-05-12Emile Servan-Schreiber

Why Probabilities Beat Predictions

Point predictions feel decisive, but probabilities tell the truth. Here is why we build every forecast as a distribution, not a single number.

Why Probabilities Beat Predictions
2026-05-12Emile Servan-Schreiber

Why Probabilities Beat Predictions

Point predictions feel decisive, but probabilities tell the truth. Here is why we build every forecast as a distribution, not a single number.

The Architecture Behind Real-Time Forecast Updates
2026-04-28Theodore Balick

The Architecture Behind Real-Time Forecast Updates

A walkthrough of how a single news event propagates through ingestion, relevance scoring, and ensemble re-aggregation in under a minute.

The Architecture Behind Real-Time Forecast Updates
2026-04-28Theodore Balick

The Architecture Behind Real-Time Forecast Updates

A walkthrough of how a single news event propagates through ingestion, relevance scoring, and ensemble re-aggregation in under a minute.

The Architecture Behind Real-Time Forecast Updates
2026-04-28Theodore Balick

The Architecture Behind Real-Time Forecast Updates

A walkthrough of how a single news event propagates through ingestion, relevance scoring, and ensemble re-aggregation in under a minute.

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